NFL · Week 7 · Thursday, Oct. 22
Caleb Williams has seen this Patriots defense once. He spent most of that afternoon on his back: nine sacks in a 19-3 loss in November 2024. Thursday is the rematch, and almost nothing about it looks the same. New England is the defending AFC champion on a three-game win streak. Williams just went 30-of-36 for 305 yards in his first game back from a torn hamstring. Both teams are 4-2, it’s a short week, and the Patriots’ injury report reads like a hospital chart. Here’s what matters before kickoff.
Game Info
- Kickoff: 5:15 PM PT (8:15 PM ET), Thursday
- Watch: Prime Video
- Where: Soldier Field, Chicago. Forecast around 62 degrees with almost no wind, so weather shouldn’t be a factor.
- Records: Patriots 4-2, Bears 4-2
- DraftKings: Bears -2.5, total 50.5. Opened Bears -1.5 and 48.5. Lines as of Wednesday morning.
Read the Line Before You Read the Matchup
The spread went from 1.5 to 2.5, and it’s sitting right under 3. That matters more than people think. More NFL games end on a 3-point margin than on any other number. If you like Chicago, laying 2.5 is a very different bet from laying 3. If you like New England, +3 is worth a lot more than +2.5. If this one ticks to 3 before Thursday, the whole conversation changes. Don’t just take the first number you see. Check DraftKings and FanDuel side by side on our Odds board, because the price on the same spread is often different between the two.
The total has climbed two full points, from 48.5 to 50.5. That’s the market buying both quarterbacks.
Williams vs. Maye, Round Two
These two went first and third in the 2024 draft. Williams leads the league in completion percentage, and in his return against Atlanta the Bears put up 386 yards and led 21-7 at the half. Chicago also went 2-1 while he was out, which tells you the roster around him is solid.
Drake Maye has been just as hot: seven touchdown passes and no interceptions over his last two games, plus a rushing score. He’s run for at least 24 yards in each of his last three starts. Against a Bears defense that sends a lot of pressure, a quarterback who can get out of the pocket is a real weapon.
The Injury Report Is the Whole Game
New England’s offensive line is a mess right now. Center Ben Brown (knee) and guard Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) didn’t practice Tuesday. Right tackle Morgan Moses (foot) was limited. Receiver A.J. Brown (ankle) was limited too, and he’s coming off a rough game against the Jets: three catches on 10 targets with three drops. Romeo Doubs is on injured reserve.
Now look at what’s waiting for them. Kyler Gordon came back last week and had three sacks on 17 snaps, and the Bears got to Atlanta’s quarterback five times. On Chicago’s side, linebackers T.J. Edwards (hamstring) and Jack Sanborn (concussion) and running back Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) didn’t practice. Guard Jonah Jackson (hip) was limited. If Monangai sits, D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson carry the load.
Here’s a habit that’s saved me more money than any stat: on Thursday nights, wait for the inactives. They come out about 90 minutes before kickoff. If two New England linemen are down, you want to know that before you bet, not after.
Numbers Worth Knowing
- Both defenses are top 10. New England allows 18.8 points a game, Chicago 19.8.
- Chicago is 4-2 against the spread and 4-2 to the under this season, and 3-0 to the under at home.
- New England is 3-2-1 against the spread.
- The Patriots are 6-1 against the Bears since 2002 and have won their last four trips to Chicago.
- Chicago played Sunday night, so the Bears are working on a shorter week than usual.
The Bottom Line
This game comes down to one question: can a patched-up Patriots line keep Maye clean against a defense that loves to blitz? Everything else is secondary. Watch the number around 3, and watch the inactives.
Early Release Club members get our plays at the opening line, before the number moves. Game Day members get them 20 minutes before kickoff, after the inactives are out. 5-Star Plays are hitting 72.2% (221-85), and every club is free right now. Put your email below and the next play lands in your inbox the second it’s released.
21+ · Past results do not guarantee future results · 1-800-GAMBLER. Lines can change.
Sources: Patriots.com injury report, NBC Sports, Yahoo Sports, Covers, Bear Goggles On. Practice status as of Tuesday.